CORRECTION TO YESTERDAY’S POST:
According to the International Energy Agency in a report that will be published 11/12/2008, there will be shown that, since 2003, there is a reduction of energy production of between 6 and 9% …not the 69% reduction as indicated in yesterday’s post. Sorry for the misinformation. JK

Pat Murphy – Community Solution Director
11.1.2008 at 9:00am

Survival Strategies

Nothing that has been built in the U.S. has been built with sustainability as defined by the United Nations document on Sustainability. Sustainable strategies need to be developed to deal with 1. Shrinking Fossil Fuels (Richard Heinberg’s “Peak Everything”), 2. Increasing CO2 emissions leading to climate crises and 3. Record inequity throughout the world that leads to violence and suffering of humanity. This is a new frontier for everyone. We’ve had approximately 10,000 years of Agrarian-based society, 250 years of Technical-based society and 60 years of “Hyper-tech society and that the last two are not sustainable based upon current conditions. BioFuels has turned into a disaster for the world’s poor as well as farmers and energy users. According to Ivan Illich (1974), all energy options have liabilities and that energy consumption is directly related to inequity. Inequity among the world’s people results in higher military involvement and costs.

Energy sources of Oil, Natural Gas, Wood and Uranium Fission are in scarcity and are not a viable option anymore. Uranium Fusion proves to be too difficult of a problem to solve to be used soon. Although Wind and Solar are proven to be useful, they can not supply the energy needs to power today’s lifestyles in the United States. Consumption needs to be curtailed dramatically and deeply. To achieve sustainable societies, individuals must reduce their energy use to 10% of what they now use. Although the “green” and LEED programs are now being promoted, they do not address the drastic reduction of energy availability that must come with the peaking of petroleum and the resulting lowering of availability soon afterwards. Green and LEED programs are an example of “too little and too late”. LEEDs programs mandate a reduction in energy use to 20% and the world needs the reduction to 90%. For the United States, this is the energy used in the 1950’s. In the 1950’s, housing consisted of homes built for 260 sq. ft. per person…by 2008 it rose to 800 sq. ft. per person with increases in energy consumption and CO2 emissions.

William Shurcliff wrote of the “super-insulated” house back in the 1970’s and identified the necessary R-values in house construction: Floors – R-30, Walls – R-40 and Roofs – R-40. This type of construction method will reduce the home’s energy usage down to the 10% required. As a result of current industrial models of business and manufacturing, the world sacrificed “community” for consumerism – and instilled the inequity that we see today. If the rest of the world lived like the U.S., our planet Earth would turn to desert.

Not only do we have to reduce our energy consumption but also our CO2 emissions as well. A sustainable carbon emission value could be 1 ton per year which would involve heat/cooling, transportation and food production. We presently emit more CO2 into the atmosphere for our agricultural methodology than any other sector – transportation and climate control. With the present world’s condition, there seems to be a race happening as to which one is going to create the catastrophe first: Peak Oil scenarios or Weather Change due to CO2 emissions.


Katrina Klingenbert – Passive House Institute US
http://www.pasivehouse.us
11/1/2008 10:00a.m.

It will be impossible to disconnect from the utility power grid while maintaining our present lifestyles – there really is not enough energy available at costs that can be afforded. The solution involves drastic cuts in personal energy consumption. Katrina’s company designs Zero Energy Homes that also has a Carbon Neutral Footprint on emissions (CO2 saved equals CO2 generated). Worldwide, energy consumption averages 17,500 KwH per year per person and the goal for her houses is 2,000 KwH per year per person (one hairdryer’s energy for heating/cooling, domestic hot water and more).

Building construction is recommended having R-30 in floors, R-30 in walls and R-40 in roofs. Combining this conservation with buried air pipes below the frost line of the land enables 55 deg. F air to be brought into the house year-round. Space heating is then performed with people and/or lighting. Important construction dictates the need to eliminate “thermal bridges” that allow heat to travel from inside to outside and vise-versa: much easier to do on new construction but somewhat possible for retro-fits. Other building constructions involve solar shading for summer heat gain control and heat recovery systems to remove or contain building heat. With retrofit applications, exterior or interior walls with insulation are installed to achieve the r-factors and eliminate thermal bridges.

It is impossible to buy ourselves out of the Peak Oil crisis that is coming – retrofits must be the key to achieve reduction in energy consumption.

Linda Wigington
http://www.affordablecomfort.org
11/1/2008 10:30a.m.

The pathways to energy reduction involve Conservation, Efficiency, Renewable Energy and a Communities Solution to energy problems. To fix the energy problem, we first need to have a mental map on what to do. Establish community-based networks having energy experts and construction people to assist in projects to reduce learning curves and re-inventing the wheel. U.S. Average energy usage is 36,590 btu’s/ft2/year (DOE 2007). Suggestions in devising a plan for construction: 1. Develop Indicators, 2. Place projects in demonstrations for publicity, 3. Assemble local craftspeople and others for excellent construction practices and best practices, 4. Involve others for the synergy that they could offer (Organize!). Always consider “What would you do if gas rose to $10/gal; the economy fell; if your basement flooded? Develop a long-term strategy.

Consider energy conservation as a promoter of local cottage industries: Carpenters could make windows having low-e glass and proper thermal barriers. Carpenters could develop skills in retrofitting existing buildings to new efficient designs. Due to the amount of foreclosures and displaced families, zoning laws would probably have to be re-written to allow for multiple families within single houses. Local neighborhoods could establish contests involving best designs and the best energy performance – to also be used as a benchmark for future projects.

“What other generation has ever been given the chance to transform the world than ours?” Pat Murphy, Community Solutions

Dmitry Orlov
5 Stages of Collapse
11/1/2008 2:00p.m.

A thinker and predictor of collapse in the U.S. since his first hand experience living in the USSR. The USSR collapsed when in the 1980’s the glut of oil brought down the price of oil, reducing the amount of hard currency being brought into that country and the USSR’s inability to take on further debt. A shrinking economy cannot support increasing debt – which is what is affecting the U.S. now. The U.S. is addressing the problem of lack of financial backing by world institutions by printing money which must lead to hyper-inflation. When this happens, life will go on – but how? What will happen to our automobile culture?, the big box stores that depend upon imported goods and that we buy from?, Our corporate-backed governmental policies?

The five stages of collapse are: 1. Financial, 2. Commercial, 3. Political, 4. Social and 5. Cultural. A signpost of Financial collapse involve the understanding that the financial markets no longer work. The traditional ways of doing business just don’t work anymore. Anticipating Commercial collapse, we could see that goods and services are just not available any more. Imported goods will become scarce or missing off of store shelves altogether. For Political collapse, it is when the government can no longer take care of its citizens. Government looses its legitimacy and relevance – individual states could fragment much like what happened within the old USSR. Social collapse could witness a change in our social fabric – what we do in society. Automobile races, shopping excursions and sporting activities may no longer exist. Cultural collapse, the last element, involves the loss of “humanity” – Kindness, generosity, consideration, honesty may be gone in favor of baser human activities involving survival.

Financial, Commercial and Political collapse may, of a necessity, have to collapse before we build new structures. We can, however, prevent the collapse of social and cultural aspects with the strengths of our communities and our support groups. Many of the signs of collapse are now being hidden away from view. If one is working, there may not appear to be a problem but for them who lost their jobs and their homes, the collapse has happened. The problems existing in the U.S. is not “liquidity” but of “Solvency” – what do we have of actual value? The U.S. has really changed from what it used to be in the past. In Russia, the common areas such as Parks and Forests were trashed by people trying to survive and searching for resources to live.

The worst case for anyone in this process is to remain silent and watch the country go down – expecting to build when the total destruction is reached. Now is the time to create alternatives to those systems, institutions that are going into decline. These alternatives could be the jumping to choices when people are sinking. Future communities will be responsible for the creation and maintaining of humanitarian aspects of life: dignity, belonging, acceptance and other human virtues. These future communities will offer the support to members and provide basic needs. Suggestion for enduring this process of collapse are: 1. Live without needing increasing amounts of money, 2. Look to communities and members who can support giving basic human needs, 3. Create and practice local self governance, 4. Establish and nurture communities that are responsible to community cohesion and mutual security.