Saturday, November 15, 2008
Monday, November 3, 2008
Megan Quinn Bachman
11/2/2008 9:00am
“The Long Dark Night Ahead”
There was intention of having the 5th Peak Oil Conference over the Halloween Weekend. Halloween is a time on the calendar that is the ending of a year’s cycle – a beginning to winter and all that it signifies. The financial melt-down starting this summer could be understood as the end of Globalization. As of this moment, shipping cargotainers used to transport products from Asia to the United States are empty and sitting idly at docks on the East and West Coasts. The news is reporting that 25% of Chinese shipping businesses are bankrupt. A working definition of “crisis” is when “The past has the least hold on the present – and when the present has great affect on the future”.
The twin crises now happening are energy (Peaking of the world’s oil production/availability) and climate change. The current ideas surrounding “Sustainability” may not solve our problems since sustainability involves doing things that meets our current and future needs. This will prove impossible due to the role that petroleum had played in creating our lifestyles. We can’t maintain our present way of life with the lifestyles we now enjoy and have to be dramatically reduced. One gallon of gasoline equals approximately 6 weeks of steady human labor. This liquid energy is responsible for the greatest majority of goods and services provided to the world and the gasoline is running out – no drop-in replacement in sight. We all must share in the decline that must come. For anyone to try to improve his condition means that those resources will be taken from another; therefore continuing the inequity which must lead to suffering and violence.
During this declining process, we can expect traditional social services to be destroyed with the collapse. We can presently see the collapse of the Industrial Capitalism model as we saw the collapse of the Industrial Socialist model – both failed economic systems.
Communities, by design share risks among members and therefore share opportunities and skills. Strong communities keep people from turning on each other for survival. Resilient communities will have a foundation of wealth based upon needs rather than consumption. Since money is a symbol of wealth, strong communities should have less wealth and greater cooperation among members to meet member needs. Credit Unions, Community Supported Agriculture are two examples of community wealth. The investment in communities will be made in people (with skills development and capacity building) and habitat. To rebuild the infrastructure, people with skills will be needed. Money cannot rebuild infrastructure at this time since the loaning of money is under tremendous constraint. It will soon be apparent that the present monetary system will be ill-equipped to address the challenges related to Peak Oil. The monetary system of the 1930’s was also ill equipped to handle the challenges of the Great Depression.
The western society has evolved from a respect/reverence toward Wisdom to Knowledge to Information. The information contained in the figures of the nation’s Gross National Product (GNP) does not count the negatives happening within the nation. Jails, Court Systems, Police and Drug Abuse centers all add to the numbers in the GNP. Another scale determining national wealth – the GPI (General Progress Indicator?) could be used to gauge national wealth.
There is plenty of advertising on the media about purchasing and supporting “green” but not much is being presented about having “green” agriculture. Presently, the industrial agricultural model being used in the U.S. uses around 60 (?) calories to produce 1 (?) calorie of food.
We are seeing a birth of a new way of life for the world. With natural birth, the mother experiences great pain during the process – it should not be any different with the process that everyone is finding themselves in. There is much news about the political campaigns – much talk about Republicans and Democrats. Perhaps there should be the start of a new National Party – the Community Party. A political party entirely grass-roots, local in character and not beholding to foreign influence.
Michael Brownlee
11/2/2008 10:00am
http://www.transitioncolorado.ning.com
Transition as a Movement
Many communities in the United States are finding their positions at the end of a very fragile supply chain. Disruptions in energy, food and medical supplies can easily devastate communities in very short periods of time. With the “perfect storm” (Peak Oil, Climate Change and Economic Collapse), the question becomes how do we create communities that will allow us to survive and increase our quality of life. We can see that traditional communities are ill-prepared to address these problems or find solutions in traditional manners. This summer, we find that the world’s economy has literally hit the wall. The questions become how do we make a graceful and ethical decent?
This may prove to be the transition from our species as adolescents to our species as adults. Now is the time to pause, ponder about our present course and plan our transition to whatever is going to come. As everyone understands, it takes inexpensive energy to maintain current levels of lifestyles. As we shift away from petroleum energy (something that must happen based upon oil production figures), we have a chance to recreate the communities we want to live in. Relocalize is the term being used – everything on the local level first. Part of any relocalization plan should include Food, Energy and Goods/Services. Indicators of relocalization advancement could include: Food being produced locally, the number of businesses servicing the locality, building materials being manufactured locally, employment in local businesses for supplying local needs.
The most exciting movement world wide concerning relocalization is “Transition Towns”. Starting in Great Britain, towns have organized around its citizens, developed a new locally-based economy, created their own arts centers and became their own community leaders. Bob Hopkins, a community college instructor at Kinsale Further Education College, developed a project for his students that would allow them to study and propose a plan that a community could use to advance themselves. The student project “Kinsale 2021 V.1 2005 was proposed by the students, adopted by the citizens of Totnes, Ireland which lead to a type of community transformation. The project allows replication to any community wanting their own transformation. Michael Brownlee represents Transition Towns, Bolder Colorado in the U.S. There are presently over 900 Transition Towns in the world and now just coming to the U.S.
Since we can expect less energy and less money, Transition Towns is acting on developing plans for community rebuilding of local economies, agricultural systems, self-reliance and advancement of the arts. The Transition Town processes include: 1. Form groups of interested people, 2. Raise Awareness, 3. Lay a collaborative foundation among other groups, 4. Officially start the campaign 5. Form working task groups 6. Explore all ideas involving creative processes 7. Visually imagine projects 8. Facilitate re-skilling of members 9. Build bridges and work with governmental officials 10. Engage the elderly 11. Do not provide for constraints as projects evolve 12. Actually create the energy decent action plan.
It works because it is rooted in a type of Permaculture philosophy, exists in a positive visioning perspective, trusts people to imagine and decide what is best, enables sharing of resources and ideas, is a grass-roots oriented activity, provides a replicable model for others to follow, is scalable to size, develops synergy among members, provides for an optimism for members.
Richard Heinberg
11/2/2008 11:00am
Powering Down via Webcast with WebEX
The focus of this presentation will be to suggest strategic thinking on the critically points affecting us today. It will be made clear by the International Energy Agency that the world has peaked in Oil production in July, 2008 – Natural Gas and Coal are not that far behind according to best analysis. Russia, the largest Non-OPEC country presently is in oil production decline. According to The Oil Drum (www.theoldrum.com) all liquid fuels peaked in 2008. With the declining U.S. dollar, we still are experiencing tighter supplies – supply levels of petroleum have not changed. Gasoline prices are low because of demand destruction. With gasoline prices low, oil companies cannot justify drilling in new areas because of the return of their investments. The U.S. government can open up ANWAR to drillers but they will not drill because there is no money in it.
With the present demand for petroleum, the world needs 1 new Saudi Arabian oil field to be discovered every 18 months and that is not happening. The quantities of oil now being found are significantly less and in harder to get areas guaranteeing that the energy will be more expensive. We may have petroleum to use but will General Motors and Ford be around to make the cars to use them? Who wants to invest $100/bbl in a process that would only bring $60/bbl?
The consequences of this will be severe. We will see the end of affordable airplane travel. Already the CEO of Boeing is concerned about his organization in light of these energy costs and future energy projections (Peak Oil). Some are saying that coal is our future for cars – liquefied coal can be used in internal combustion engines. But that process uses tremendous amounts of water which is scarce and becoming scarcer. Hydrogen energy foundations have been taken off the table of discussion because of Energy Returned on Energy Invested – Hydrogen has been taken off the table of discussion because it is a poor deal.
With the current Climate Change process affecting the globe and the shortages of Petroleum with declining monetary systems, the only answer for people is to power down and to power down now. Peak Oil will represent the end of the Economic World as we know it. This is already being understood since traditional ways of doing business is no longer working. This crisis will be a great motivator similar to what was experienced with Cuba, The Great Depression and World War II. Resilient communities would be well positioned to absorb the shocks that must come. The time to develop community plans must come now.
The need today is not in more industrial training – the foundation of the modern industrial society is being deprived of the very thing that it needs – energy. Economies should be redesigned to a steady-state mode. Progress and wealth need to be redefined. Perhaps to turn ourselves away from the consumer society, advertising should be outlawed. We see that corporations are being thrown off balance with current conditions. We can expect a receptive audience to our ideas, prognostications and solutions since nothing else is working. Form working groups, work with organizations, ask for participation, coordinate with disaster relief organizations, create and communicate coherent plans, obtain funding, implement plans, expand plans and share plans with others. We’re all in this one together and need each other.
Some of the important first steps would include: FOOD: Move away from food supplies that rely on fossil fuels – instead develop local agricultural systems and supply networks. ELECTRICITY: Rebuild the national electric grid to accommodate renewable energy generator resources. RETROFIT: existing building to greater energy conservation standards. TRANSPORT: Rebuild rail and public transportation systems.
END OF CONFERENCE
11/2/2008 9:00am
“The Long Dark Night Ahead”
There was intention of having the 5th Peak Oil Conference over the Halloween Weekend. Halloween is a time on the calendar that is the ending of a year’s cycle – a beginning to winter and all that it signifies. The financial melt-down starting this summer could be understood as the end of Globalization. As of this moment, shipping cargotainers used to transport products from Asia to the United States are empty and sitting idly at docks on the East and West Coasts. The news is reporting that 25% of Chinese shipping businesses are bankrupt. A working definition of “crisis” is when “The past has the least hold on the present – and when the present has great affect on the future”.
The twin crises now happening are energy (Peaking of the world’s oil production/availability) and climate change. The current ideas surrounding “Sustainability” may not solve our problems since sustainability involves doing things that meets our current and future needs. This will prove impossible due to the role that petroleum had played in creating our lifestyles. We can’t maintain our present way of life with the lifestyles we now enjoy and have to be dramatically reduced. One gallon of gasoline equals approximately 6 weeks of steady human labor. This liquid energy is responsible for the greatest majority of goods and services provided to the world and the gasoline is running out – no drop-in replacement in sight. We all must share in the decline that must come. For anyone to try to improve his condition means that those resources will be taken from another; therefore continuing the inequity which must lead to suffering and violence.
During this declining process, we can expect traditional social services to be destroyed with the collapse. We can presently see the collapse of the Industrial Capitalism model as we saw the collapse of the Industrial Socialist model – both failed economic systems.
Communities, by design share risks among members and therefore share opportunities and skills. Strong communities keep people from turning on each other for survival. Resilient communities will have a foundation of wealth based upon needs rather than consumption. Since money is a symbol of wealth, strong communities should have less wealth and greater cooperation among members to meet member needs. Credit Unions, Community Supported Agriculture are two examples of community wealth. The investment in communities will be made in people (with skills development and capacity building) and habitat. To rebuild the infrastructure, people with skills will be needed. Money cannot rebuild infrastructure at this time since the loaning of money is under tremendous constraint. It will soon be apparent that the present monetary system will be ill-equipped to address the challenges related to Peak Oil. The monetary system of the 1930’s was also ill equipped to handle the challenges of the Great Depression.
The western society has evolved from a respect/reverence toward Wisdom to Knowledge to Information. The information contained in the figures of the nation’s Gross National Product (GNP) does not count the negatives happening within the nation. Jails, Court Systems, Police and Drug Abuse centers all add to the numbers in the GNP. Another scale determining national wealth – the GPI (General Progress Indicator?) could be used to gauge national wealth.
There is plenty of advertising on the media about purchasing and supporting “green” but not much is being presented about having “green” agriculture. Presently, the industrial agricultural model being used in the U.S. uses around 60 (?) calories to produce 1 (?) calorie of food.
We are seeing a birth of a new way of life for the world. With natural birth, the mother experiences great pain during the process – it should not be any different with the process that everyone is finding themselves in. There is much news about the political campaigns – much talk about Republicans and Democrats. Perhaps there should be the start of a new National Party – the Community Party. A political party entirely grass-roots, local in character and not beholding to foreign influence.
Michael Brownlee
11/2/2008 10:00am
http://www.transitioncolorado.ning.com
Transition as a Movement
Many communities in the United States are finding their positions at the end of a very fragile supply chain. Disruptions in energy, food and medical supplies can easily devastate communities in very short periods of time. With the “perfect storm” (Peak Oil, Climate Change and Economic Collapse), the question becomes how do we create communities that will allow us to survive and increase our quality of life. We can see that traditional communities are ill-prepared to address these problems or find solutions in traditional manners. This summer, we find that the world’s economy has literally hit the wall. The questions become how do we make a graceful and ethical decent?
This may prove to be the transition from our species as adolescents to our species as adults. Now is the time to pause, ponder about our present course and plan our transition to whatever is going to come. As everyone understands, it takes inexpensive energy to maintain current levels of lifestyles. As we shift away from petroleum energy (something that must happen based upon oil production figures), we have a chance to recreate the communities we want to live in. Relocalize is the term being used – everything on the local level first. Part of any relocalization plan should include Food, Energy and Goods/Services. Indicators of relocalization advancement could include: Food being produced locally, the number of businesses servicing the locality, building materials being manufactured locally, employment in local businesses for supplying local needs.
The most exciting movement world wide concerning relocalization is “Transition Towns”. Starting in Great Britain, towns have organized around its citizens, developed a new locally-based economy, created their own arts centers and became their own community leaders. Bob Hopkins, a community college instructor at Kinsale Further Education College, developed a project for his students that would allow them to study and propose a plan that a community could use to advance themselves. The student project “Kinsale 2021 V.1 2005 was proposed by the students, adopted by the citizens of Totnes, Ireland which lead to a type of community transformation. The project allows replication to any community wanting their own transformation. Michael Brownlee represents Transition Towns, Bolder Colorado in the U.S. There are presently over 900 Transition Towns in the world and now just coming to the U.S.
Since we can expect less energy and less money, Transition Towns is acting on developing plans for community rebuilding of local economies, agricultural systems, self-reliance and advancement of the arts. The Transition Town processes include: 1. Form groups of interested people, 2. Raise Awareness, 3. Lay a collaborative foundation among other groups, 4. Officially start the campaign 5. Form working task groups 6. Explore all ideas involving creative processes 7. Visually imagine projects 8. Facilitate re-skilling of members 9. Build bridges and work with governmental officials 10. Engage the elderly 11. Do not provide for constraints as projects evolve 12. Actually create the energy decent action plan.
It works because it is rooted in a type of Permaculture philosophy, exists in a positive visioning perspective, trusts people to imagine and decide what is best, enables sharing of resources and ideas, is a grass-roots oriented activity, provides a replicable model for others to follow, is scalable to size, develops synergy among members, provides for an optimism for members.
Richard Heinberg
11/2/2008 11:00am
Powering Down via Webcast with WebEX
The focus of this presentation will be to suggest strategic thinking on the critically points affecting us today. It will be made clear by the International Energy Agency that the world has peaked in Oil production in July, 2008 – Natural Gas and Coal are not that far behind according to best analysis. Russia, the largest Non-OPEC country presently is in oil production decline. According to The Oil Drum (www.theoldrum.com) all liquid fuels peaked in 2008. With the declining U.S. dollar, we still are experiencing tighter supplies – supply levels of petroleum have not changed. Gasoline prices are low because of demand destruction. With gasoline prices low, oil companies cannot justify drilling in new areas because of the return of their investments. The U.S. government can open up ANWAR to drillers but they will not drill because there is no money in it.
With the present demand for petroleum, the world needs 1 new Saudi Arabian oil field to be discovered every 18 months and that is not happening. The quantities of oil now being found are significantly less and in harder to get areas guaranteeing that the energy will be more expensive. We may have petroleum to use but will General Motors and Ford be around to make the cars to use them? Who wants to invest $100/bbl in a process that would only bring $60/bbl?
The consequences of this will be severe. We will see the end of affordable airplane travel. Already the CEO of Boeing is concerned about his organization in light of these energy costs and future energy projections (Peak Oil). Some are saying that coal is our future for cars – liquefied coal can be used in internal combustion engines. But that process uses tremendous amounts of water which is scarce and becoming scarcer. Hydrogen energy foundations have been taken off the table of discussion because of Energy Returned on Energy Invested – Hydrogen has been taken off the table of discussion because it is a poor deal.
With the current Climate Change process affecting the globe and the shortages of Petroleum with declining monetary systems, the only answer for people is to power down and to power down now. Peak Oil will represent the end of the Economic World as we know it. This is already being understood since traditional ways of doing business is no longer working. This crisis will be a great motivator similar to what was experienced with Cuba, The Great Depression and World War II. Resilient communities would be well positioned to absorb the shocks that must come. The time to develop community plans must come now.
The need today is not in more industrial training – the foundation of the modern industrial society is being deprived of the very thing that it needs – energy. Economies should be redesigned to a steady-state mode. Progress and wealth need to be redefined. Perhaps to turn ourselves away from the consumer society, advertising should be outlawed. We see that corporations are being thrown off balance with current conditions. We can expect a receptive audience to our ideas, prognostications and solutions since nothing else is working. Form working groups, work with organizations, ask for participation, coordinate with disaster relief organizations, create and communicate coherent plans, obtain funding, implement plans, expand plans and share plans with others. We’re all in this one together and need each other.
Some of the important first steps would include: FOOD: Move away from food supplies that rely on fossil fuels – instead develop local agricultural systems and supply networks. ELECTRICITY: Rebuild the national electric grid to accommodate renewable energy generator resources. RETROFIT: existing building to greater energy conservation standards. TRANSPORT: Rebuild rail and public transportation systems.
END OF CONFERENCE
Just getting back from the Peak Oil Conference and am swamped by all the work left on my return. I'll plan to post the Conference's Final Day summary this week. In the meantime, there was presented a world-wide grass-roots movement toward community sustainability. The project called "Transition Towns" was started in Great Britain and is considered the largest and fastest growing movement of its kind involving citizen involvement. Accessing http://www.transitiontowns.org/ is a good place to start to learn about this organization.
JohnK
JohnK
Saturday, November 1, 2008
CORRECTION TO YESTERDAY’S POST:
According to the International Energy Agency in a report that will be published 11/12/2008, there will be shown that, since 2003, there is a reduction of energy production of between 6 and 9% …not the 69% reduction as indicated in yesterday’s post. Sorry for the misinformation. JK
Pat Murphy – Community Solution Director
11.1.2008 at 9:00am
Survival Strategies
Nothing that has been built in the U.S. has been built with sustainability as defined by the United Nations document on Sustainability. Sustainable strategies need to be developed to deal with 1. Shrinking Fossil Fuels (Richard Heinberg’s “Peak Everything”), 2. Increasing CO2 emissions leading to climate crises and 3. Record inequity throughout the world that leads to violence and suffering of humanity. This is a new frontier for everyone. We’ve had approximately 10,000 years of Agrarian-based society, 250 years of Technical-based society and 60 years of “Hyper-tech society and that the last two are not sustainable based upon current conditions. BioFuels has turned into a disaster for the world’s poor as well as farmers and energy users. According to Ivan Illich (1974), all energy options have liabilities and that energy consumption is directly related to inequity. Inequity among the world’s people results in higher military involvement and costs.
Energy sources of Oil, Natural Gas, Wood and Uranium Fission are in scarcity and are not a viable option anymore. Uranium Fusion proves to be too difficult of a problem to solve to be used soon. Although Wind and Solar are proven to be useful, they can not supply the energy needs to power today’s lifestyles in the United States. Consumption needs to be curtailed dramatically and deeply. To achieve sustainable societies, individuals must reduce their energy use to 10% of what they now use. Although the “green” and LEED programs are now being promoted, they do not address the drastic reduction of energy availability that must come with the peaking of petroleum and the resulting lowering of availability soon afterwards. Green and LEED programs are an example of “too little and too late”. LEEDs programs mandate a reduction in energy use to 20% and the world needs the reduction to 90%. For the United States, this is the energy used in the 1950’s. In the 1950’s, housing consisted of homes built for 260 sq. ft. per person…by 2008 it rose to 800 sq. ft. per person with increases in energy consumption and CO2 emissions.
William Shurcliff wrote of the “super-insulated” house back in the 1970’s and identified the necessary R-values in house construction: Floors – R-30, Walls – R-40 and Roofs – R-40. This type of construction method will reduce the home’s energy usage down to the 10% required. As a result of current industrial models of business and manufacturing, the world sacrificed “community” for consumerism – and instilled the inequity that we see today. If the rest of the world lived like the U.S., our planet Earth would turn to desert.
Not only do we have to reduce our energy consumption but also our CO2 emissions as well. A sustainable carbon emission value could be 1 ton per year which would involve heat/cooling, transportation and food production. We presently emit more CO2 into the atmosphere for our agricultural methodology than any other sector – transportation and climate control. With the present world’s condition, there seems to be a race happening as to which one is going to create the catastrophe first: Peak Oil scenarios or Weather Change due to CO2 emissions.
Katrina Klingenbert – Passive House Institute US
http://www.pasivehouse.us
11/1/2008 10:00a.m.
It will be impossible to disconnect from the utility power grid while maintaining our present lifestyles – there really is not enough energy available at costs that can be afforded. The solution involves drastic cuts in personal energy consumption. Katrina’s company designs Zero Energy Homes that also has a Carbon Neutral Footprint on emissions (CO2 saved equals CO2 generated). Worldwide, energy consumption averages 17,500 KwH per year per person and the goal for her houses is 2,000 KwH per year per person (one hairdryer’s energy for heating/cooling, domestic hot water and more).
Building construction is recommended having R-30 in floors, R-30 in walls and R-40 in roofs. Combining this conservation with buried air pipes below the frost line of the land enables 55 deg. F air to be brought into the house year-round. Space heating is then performed with people and/or lighting. Important construction dictates the need to eliminate “thermal bridges” that allow heat to travel from inside to outside and vise-versa: much easier to do on new construction but somewhat possible for retro-fits. Other building constructions involve solar shading for summer heat gain control and heat recovery systems to remove or contain building heat. With retrofit applications, exterior or interior walls with insulation are installed to achieve the r-factors and eliminate thermal bridges.
It is impossible to buy ourselves out of the Peak Oil crisis that is coming – retrofits must be the key to achieve reduction in energy consumption.
Linda Wigington
http://www.affordablecomfort.org
11/1/2008 10:30a.m.
The pathways to energy reduction involve Conservation, Efficiency, Renewable Energy and a Communities Solution to energy problems. To fix the energy problem, we first need to have a mental map on what to do. Establish community-based networks having energy experts and construction people to assist in projects to reduce learning curves and re-inventing the wheel. U.S. Average energy usage is 36,590 btu’s/ft2/year (DOE 2007). Suggestions in devising a plan for construction: 1. Develop Indicators, 2. Place projects in demonstrations for publicity, 3. Assemble local craftspeople and others for excellent construction practices and best practices, 4. Involve others for the synergy that they could offer (Organize!). Always consider “What would you do if gas rose to $10/gal; the economy fell; if your basement flooded? Develop a long-term strategy.
Consider energy conservation as a promoter of local cottage industries: Carpenters could make windows having low-e glass and proper thermal barriers. Carpenters could develop skills in retrofitting existing buildings to new efficient designs. Due to the amount of foreclosures and displaced families, zoning laws would probably have to be re-written to allow for multiple families within single houses. Local neighborhoods could establish contests involving best designs and the best energy performance – to also be used as a benchmark for future projects.
“What other generation has ever been given the chance to transform the world than ours?” Pat Murphy, Community Solutions
Dmitry Orlov
5 Stages of Collapse
11/1/2008 2:00p.m.
A thinker and predictor of collapse in the U.S. since his first hand experience living in the USSR. The USSR collapsed when in the 1980’s the glut of oil brought down the price of oil, reducing the amount of hard currency being brought into that country and the USSR’s inability to take on further debt. A shrinking economy cannot support increasing debt – which is what is affecting the U.S. now. The U.S. is addressing the problem of lack of financial backing by world institutions by printing money which must lead to hyper-inflation. When this happens, life will go on – but how? What will happen to our automobile culture?, the big box stores that depend upon imported goods and that we buy from?, Our corporate-backed governmental policies?
The five stages of collapse are: 1. Financial, 2. Commercial, 3. Political, 4. Social and 5. Cultural. A signpost of Financial collapse involve the understanding that the financial markets no longer work. The traditional ways of doing business just don’t work anymore. Anticipating Commercial collapse, we could see that goods and services are just not available any more. Imported goods will become scarce or missing off of store shelves altogether. For Political collapse, it is when the government can no longer take care of its citizens. Government looses its legitimacy and relevance – individual states could fragment much like what happened within the old USSR. Social collapse could witness a change in our social fabric – what we do in society. Automobile races, shopping excursions and sporting activities may no longer exist. Cultural collapse, the last element, involves the loss of “humanity” – Kindness, generosity, consideration, honesty may be gone in favor of baser human activities involving survival.
Financial, Commercial and Political collapse may, of a necessity, have to collapse before we build new structures. We can, however, prevent the collapse of social and cultural aspects with the strengths of our communities and our support groups. Many of the signs of collapse are now being hidden away from view. If one is working, there may not appear to be a problem but for them who lost their jobs and their homes, the collapse has happened. The problems existing in the U.S. is not “liquidity” but of “Solvency” – what do we have of actual value? The U.S. has really changed from what it used to be in the past. In Russia, the common areas such as Parks and Forests were trashed by people trying to survive and searching for resources to live.
The worst case for anyone in this process is to remain silent and watch the country go down – expecting to build when the total destruction is reached. Now is the time to create alternatives to those systems, institutions that are going into decline. These alternatives could be the jumping to choices when people are sinking. Future communities will be responsible for the creation and maintaining of humanitarian aspects of life: dignity, belonging, acceptance and other human virtues. These future communities will offer the support to members and provide basic needs. Suggestion for enduring this process of collapse are: 1. Live without needing increasing amounts of money, 2. Look to communities and members who can support giving basic human needs, 3. Create and practice local self governance, 4. Establish and nurture communities that are responsible to community cohesion and mutual security.
According to the International Energy Agency in a report that will be published 11/12/2008, there will be shown that, since 2003, there is a reduction of energy production of between 6 and 9% …not the 69% reduction as indicated in yesterday’s post. Sorry for the misinformation. JK
Pat Murphy – Community Solution Director
11.1.2008 at 9:00am
Survival Strategies
Nothing that has been built in the U.S. has been built with sustainability as defined by the United Nations document on Sustainability. Sustainable strategies need to be developed to deal with 1. Shrinking Fossil Fuels (Richard Heinberg’s “Peak Everything”), 2. Increasing CO2 emissions leading to climate crises and 3. Record inequity throughout the world that leads to violence and suffering of humanity. This is a new frontier for everyone. We’ve had approximately 10,000 years of Agrarian-based society, 250 years of Technical-based society and 60 years of “Hyper-tech society and that the last two are not sustainable based upon current conditions. BioFuels has turned into a disaster for the world’s poor as well as farmers and energy users. According to Ivan Illich (1974), all energy options have liabilities and that energy consumption is directly related to inequity. Inequity among the world’s people results in higher military involvement and costs.
Energy sources of Oil, Natural Gas, Wood and Uranium Fission are in scarcity and are not a viable option anymore. Uranium Fusion proves to be too difficult of a problem to solve to be used soon. Although Wind and Solar are proven to be useful, they can not supply the energy needs to power today’s lifestyles in the United States. Consumption needs to be curtailed dramatically and deeply. To achieve sustainable societies, individuals must reduce their energy use to 10% of what they now use. Although the “green” and LEED programs are now being promoted, they do not address the drastic reduction of energy availability that must come with the peaking of petroleum and the resulting lowering of availability soon afterwards. Green and LEED programs are an example of “too little and too late”. LEEDs programs mandate a reduction in energy use to 20% and the world needs the reduction to 90%. For the United States, this is the energy used in the 1950’s. In the 1950’s, housing consisted of homes built for 260 sq. ft. per person…by 2008 it rose to 800 sq. ft. per person with increases in energy consumption and CO2 emissions.
William Shurcliff wrote of the “super-insulated” house back in the 1970’s and identified the necessary R-values in house construction: Floors – R-30, Walls – R-40 and Roofs – R-40. This type of construction method will reduce the home’s energy usage down to the 10% required. As a result of current industrial models of business and manufacturing, the world sacrificed “community” for consumerism – and instilled the inequity that we see today. If the rest of the world lived like the U.S., our planet Earth would turn to desert.
Not only do we have to reduce our energy consumption but also our CO2 emissions as well. A sustainable carbon emission value could be 1 ton per year which would involve heat/cooling, transportation and food production. We presently emit more CO2 into the atmosphere for our agricultural methodology than any other sector – transportation and climate control. With the present world’s condition, there seems to be a race happening as to which one is going to create the catastrophe first: Peak Oil scenarios or Weather Change due to CO2 emissions.
Katrina Klingenbert – Passive House Institute US
http://www.pasivehouse.us
11/1/2008 10:00a.m.
It will be impossible to disconnect from the utility power grid while maintaining our present lifestyles – there really is not enough energy available at costs that can be afforded. The solution involves drastic cuts in personal energy consumption. Katrina’s company designs Zero Energy Homes that also has a Carbon Neutral Footprint on emissions (CO2 saved equals CO2 generated). Worldwide, energy consumption averages 17,500 KwH per year per person and the goal for her houses is 2,000 KwH per year per person (one hairdryer’s energy for heating/cooling, domestic hot water and more).
Building construction is recommended having R-30 in floors, R-30 in walls and R-40 in roofs. Combining this conservation with buried air pipes below the frost line of the land enables 55 deg. F air to be brought into the house year-round. Space heating is then performed with people and/or lighting. Important construction dictates the need to eliminate “thermal bridges” that allow heat to travel from inside to outside and vise-versa: much easier to do on new construction but somewhat possible for retro-fits. Other building constructions involve solar shading for summer heat gain control and heat recovery systems to remove or contain building heat. With retrofit applications, exterior or interior walls with insulation are installed to achieve the r-factors and eliminate thermal bridges.
It is impossible to buy ourselves out of the Peak Oil crisis that is coming – retrofits must be the key to achieve reduction in energy consumption.
Linda Wigington
http://www.affordablecomfort.org
11/1/2008 10:30a.m.
The pathways to energy reduction involve Conservation, Efficiency, Renewable Energy and a Communities Solution to energy problems. To fix the energy problem, we first need to have a mental map on what to do. Establish community-based networks having energy experts and construction people to assist in projects to reduce learning curves and re-inventing the wheel. U.S. Average energy usage is 36,590 btu’s/ft2/year (DOE 2007). Suggestions in devising a plan for construction: 1. Develop Indicators, 2. Place projects in demonstrations for publicity, 3. Assemble local craftspeople and others for excellent construction practices and best practices, 4. Involve others for the synergy that they could offer (Organize!). Always consider “What would you do if gas rose to $10/gal; the economy fell; if your basement flooded? Develop a long-term strategy.
Consider energy conservation as a promoter of local cottage industries: Carpenters could make windows having low-e glass and proper thermal barriers. Carpenters could develop skills in retrofitting existing buildings to new efficient designs. Due to the amount of foreclosures and displaced families, zoning laws would probably have to be re-written to allow for multiple families within single houses. Local neighborhoods could establish contests involving best designs and the best energy performance – to also be used as a benchmark for future projects.
“What other generation has ever been given the chance to transform the world than ours?” Pat Murphy, Community Solutions
Dmitry Orlov
5 Stages of Collapse
11/1/2008 2:00p.m.
A thinker and predictor of collapse in the U.S. since his first hand experience living in the USSR. The USSR collapsed when in the 1980’s the glut of oil brought down the price of oil, reducing the amount of hard currency being brought into that country and the USSR’s inability to take on further debt. A shrinking economy cannot support increasing debt – which is what is affecting the U.S. now. The U.S. is addressing the problem of lack of financial backing by world institutions by printing money which must lead to hyper-inflation. When this happens, life will go on – but how? What will happen to our automobile culture?, the big box stores that depend upon imported goods and that we buy from?, Our corporate-backed governmental policies?
The five stages of collapse are: 1. Financial, 2. Commercial, 3. Political, 4. Social and 5. Cultural. A signpost of Financial collapse involve the understanding that the financial markets no longer work. The traditional ways of doing business just don’t work anymore. Anticipating Commercial collapse, we could see that goods and services are just not available any more. Imported goods will become scarce or missing off of store shelves altogether. For Political collapse, it is when the government can no longer take care of its citizens. Government looses its legitimacy and relevance – individual states could fragment much like what happened within the old USSR. Social collapse could witness a change in our social fabric – what we do in society. Automobile races, shopping excursions and sporting activities may no longer exist. Cultural collapse, the last element, involves the loss of “humanity” – Kindness, generosity, consideration, honesty may be gone in favor of baser human activities involving survival.
Financial, Commercial and Political collapse may, of a necessity, have to collapse before we build new structures. We can, however, prevent the collapse of social and cultural aspects with the strengths of our communities and our support groups. Many of the signs of collapse are now being hidden away from view. If one is working, there may not appear to be a problem but for them who lost their jobs and their homes, the collapse has happened. The problems existing in the U.S. is not “liquidity” but of “Solvency” – what do we have of actual value? The U.S. has really changed from what it used to be in the past. In Russia, the common areas such as Parks and Forests were trashed by people trying to survive and searching for resources to live.
The worst case for anyone in this process is to remain silent and watch the country go down – expecting to build when the total destruction is reached. Now is the time to create alternatives to those systems, institutions that are going into decline. These alternatives could be the jumping to choices when people are sinking. Future communities will be responsible for the creation and maintaining of humanitarian aspects of life: dignity, belonging, acceptance and other human virtues. These future communities will offer the support to members and provide basic needs. Suggestion for enduring this process of collapse are: 1. Live without needing increasing amounts of money, 2. Look to communities and members who can support giving basic human needs, 3. Create and practice local self governance, 4. Establish and nurture communities that are responsible to community cohesion and mutual security.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Friday, October 31, 2008
Presentation by John Michael Greer
7:30 to 8:45pm
John is a “Master Gardener” and an expert in organic agriculture…expressed his “Druid” faith belief. Of all of the greatest accomplishments of the 20th century, the knowledge learned about organic farming techniques has to be the greatest. We now have the knowledge and the ability to grow food throughout the year and leave the soil in better shape than when before. This accomplishment cannot be understated. In regards to Petroleum Energy, the oil in the sands of Alberta or the shale of the Dakotas is a trickle compared to what was produced from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Fields. There is a relative ignorance concerning Peak Oil due to what Ex Secretary of Energy James Schlesinger identified as American’s 2 states of condition: Complacency and Stark Panic. This is what happened during the Carter Years in office and what was felt during the Regan administration. During the 1980’s, a barrel of oil dropped to $10 which was the lowest price ever for this energy when inflation was factored in. We are at a point when the normally way of doing things just don’t work any more – and that this is a time of tremendous opportunity for change. The crisis is now world wide – problems exist economically, ecologically and in relation to energy utilization. An understanding of the situation could be similar to what may have happened in Rome: Citizens walking thru the forest and they hear the trees speak “Pan is dead” or citizens climbing Mount Olympus and hearing the rocks scream that Zeus is no more. Imagine the effect on those citizens and imagine the Peak Oil scenario and its ramifications on today’s populace.
The collapse of European Colonialism happened between 1914 and 1954 (the French Defeat in Vietnam). This brought in the Great Depression starting in the 1930’s and which was going to have a profound effect on Europeans. The traditional institutions of Europe could not come up with a plan to fit this societal collapse but Adolph Hitler did. It seems as if the German people adopted Hitler’s perspective because they knew of no other. It is up to us to communicate to everyone our perspective and our solution with regards to the peaking of our petroleum energy supply and the change that must come to society. Community groups and Religion in particular would be those groups that would have the most effect on the masses – and also experience the greatest admiration. Before religion can do this, however, religion has to redefine itself back to the basics of their teachings…love compassion, forgiveness and the promotion of the common good. Do not let Perfection get in the way of Possibilities – the grassroots organizations will have their successes as people realize the collapse around them. At the End of the Industrial Age, those people who have the vision of an alternative way will have the following of the community… Make your vision and the solution to the challenges known. The common media is too locked into the way things are normally done to advance concepts of sustainability let alone Peak Oil scenarios… so they will not promote the ideas or solutions. For this reason, it has to come from the grassroots – and if done, will be more effective since it comes from people that communities will know.
The world’s population has reached the carrying capacity of the earth. We can expect a reduction and contraction in world population. This is what happens when population exceeds its resources. Expect the end of the exploration of space – the world no longer has the energy to continue in this endeavor.
Presentation by John Michael Greer
7:30 to 8:45pm
John is a “Master Gardener” and an expert in organic agriculture…expressed his “Druid” faith belief. Of all of the greatest accomplishments of the 20th century, the knowledge learned about organic farming techniques has to be the greatest. We now have the knowledge and the ability to grow food throughout the year and leave the soil in better shape than when before. This accomplishment cannot be understated. In regards to Petroleum Energy, the oil in the sands of Alberta or the shale of the Dakotas is a trickle compared to what was produced from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Fields. There is a relative ignorance concerning Peak Oil due to what Ex Secretary of Energy James Schlesinger identified as American’s 2 states of condition: Complacency and Stark Panic. This is what happened during the Carter Years in office and what was felt during the Regan administration. During the 1980’s, a barrel of oil dropped to $10 which was the lowest price ever for this energy when inflation was factored in. We are at a point when the normally way of doing things just don’t work any more – and that this is a time of tremendous opportunity for change. The crisis is now world wide – problems exist economically, ecologically and in relation to energy utilization. An understanding of the situation could be similar to what may have happened in Rome: Citizens walking thru the forest and they hear the trees speak “Pan is dead” or citizens climbing Mount Olympus and hearing the rocks scream that Zeus is no more. Imagine the effect on those citizens and imagine the Peak Oil scenario and its ramifications on today’s populace.
The collapse of European Colonialism happened between 1914 and 1954 (the French Defeat in Vietnam). This brought in the Great Depression starting in the 1930’s and which was going to have a profound effect on Europeans. The traditional institutions of Europe could not come up with a plan to fit this societal collapse but Adolph Hitler did. It seems as if the German people adopted Hitler’s perspective because they knew of no other. It is up to us to communicate to everyone our perspective and our solution with regards to the peaking of our petroleum energy supply and the change that must come to society. Community groups and Religion in particular would be those groups that would have the most effect on the masses – and also experience the greatest admiration. Before religion can do this, however, religion has to redefine itself back to the basics of their teachings…love compassion, forgiveness and the promotion of the common good. Do not let Perfection get in the way of Possibilities – the grassroots organizations will have their successes as people realize the collapse around them. At the End of the Industrial Age, those people who have the vision of an alternative way will have the following of the community… Make your vision and the solution to the challenges known. The common media is too locked into the way things are normally done to advance concepts of sustainability let alone Peak Oil scenarios… so they will not promote the ideas or solutions. For this reason, it has to come from the grassroots – and if done, will be more effective since it comes from people that communities will know.
The world’s population has reached the carrying capacity of the earth. We can expect a reduction and contraction in world population. This is what happens when population exceeds its resources. Expect the end of the exploration of space – the world no longer has the energy to continue in this endeavor.
Friday October 31, 2008
Mr. Pat Murphy Introduction Presentation
7:00 to 7:30p.m.
This was the 5th Peak Oil Conference offered by Community Solutions. Since the first conference, Community Solutions has addressed the Peak Oil problem in three ways: Food Production, Energy Conservation and Local Self Reliance. Community Solutions is an agent promoting the acquisition of skills for people in their food, housing and transportation needs. Community Solutions provides a “perspective” toward the Peak Oil problem as well as serving as a catalyst for the adoption of future visions opportunities.
Peak Oil, according to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), the actual year for the peak is 2008 where during the 1st Peak Oil Conference, they anticipated Peak Oil to hit around 2012. In the last 5 years, the world’s production of fossil fuels experienced a 69% reduction in availability according to the International Energy Agency (2008). The last 5 years, the world experienced the highest inequity among peoples of the world than at any other time in its history – this correlates to the use and price of fossil fuels. This energy use promotes “our way of life”.
Solutions are being recognized as not being able to work…The Future Gen Project had been canceled by President George Bush because it was proven not to work. The United States manufactures predict that by 2012, a car that would run on coal would be manufactured but will General Motors be around to make it? “Speaking Truth to Power” has proven ineffectual because the power already knows the problem and cannot address its solution in innovative and imaginative ways. Any change would have to come up from “the bottom up” because the top doesn’t care. Community Solutions offers the following suggestions:
Give Up Our Addictions to Technology
Start to Teach Return On Investment, Life Cycle Costing, Energy Utilization and Energy Returned on Energy Invested in higher education
JohnK
Mr. Pat Murphy Introduction Presentation
7:00 to 7:30p.m.
This was the 5th Peak Oil Conference offered by Community Solutions. Since the first conference, Community Solutions has addressed the Peak Oil problem in three ways: Food Production, Energy Conservation and Local Self Reliance. Community Solutions is an agent promoting the acquisition of skills for people in their food, housing and transportation needs. Community Solutions provides a “perspective” toward the Peak Oil problem as well as serving as a catalyst for the adoption of future visions opportunities.
Peak Oil, according to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), the actual year for the peak is 2008 where during the 1st Peak Oil Conference, they anticipated Peak Oil to hit around 2012. In the last 5 years, the world’s production of fossil fuels experienced a 69% reduction in availability according to the International Energy Agency (2008). The last 5 years, the world experienced the highest inequity among peoples of the world than at any other time in its history – this correlates to the use and price of fossil fuels. This energy use promotes “our way of life”.
Solutions are being recognized as not being able to work…The Future Gen Project had been canceled by President George Bush because it was proven not to work. The United States manufactures predict that by 2012, a car that would run on coal would be manufactured but will General Motors be around to make it? “Speaking Truth to Power” has proven ineffectual because the power already knows the problem and cannot address its solution in innovative and imaginative ways. Any change would have to come up from “the bottom up” because the top doesn’t care. Community Solutions offers the following suggestions:
Give Up Our Addictions to Technology
Start to Teach Return On Investment, Life Cycle Costing, Energy Utilization and Energy Returned on Energy Invested in higher education
JohnK
10/31: 6:30p.m.
Before the start of the opening session, it has been stated that:
* U.S. Buildings consume more energy than it's occupant's food and personal transportation needs.
* The need for "low-energy" housing will be critical.
* The need for "Low-energy" housing will be combined with "low-tech" solutions.
* A (probably) known fact is that the U.S. consumes 25% of the world's energy but is only 5% of the population.
* The transition that the Peak Oil scenario brings will probably require a rapid education in basic self-reliance.
* Quality of Life considerations should be paramount.
JohnK
Before the start of the opening session, it has been stated that:
* U.S. Buildings consume more energy than it's occupant's food and personal transportation needs.
* The need for "low-energy" housing will be critical.
* The need for "Low-energy" housing will be combined with "low-tech" solutions.
* A (probably) known fact is that the U.S. consumes 25% of the world's energy but is only 5% of the population.
* The transition that the Peak Oil scenario brings will probably require a rapid education in basic self-reliance.
* Quality of Life considerations should be paramount.
JohnK
Thursday, October 30, 2008
4th Conference on Peak Oil Summary
Hi to everyone:
This coming weekend (10/31 to 11/2), I will be attending the Peak Oil Conference at Oakland University, Rochester, Michigan. This conference is sponsored by Community Solutions of Yellow Springs, Ohio (see: http://www.communitysolution.org/index.html) and promises a thought-provoking experience. Check this blog frequently during the course of this weekend to see my summaries of that day's presentations.
JohnK
This coming weekend (10/31 to 11/2), I will be attending the Peak Oil Conference at Oakland University, Rochester, Michigan. This conference is sponsored by Community Solutions of Yellow Springs, Ohio (see: http://www.communitysolution.org/index.html) and promises a thought-provoking experience. Check this blog frequently during the course of this weekend to see my summaries of that day's presentations.
JohnK
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